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The following article Do You Know The Future was authored by Scott Williams and is republished in this directory with the author's permission. These articles are published as an information source for real property owners, buyers, sellers, investors and brokers.
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Do You Know The Future
by: Scott Williams
Property ownership patterns are unmistakable over a lifetime. Witness the apartment you live in at 21, the family home at 42, with retirement living beginning between 60 and 70. Millions of Americans follow these patterns making housing needs predictable. Right now America's biggest generation, the Baby-Boomers, are entering their most productive earning years, and they are buying their biggest homes. Retirement living is in conscious planning stages for the youngest Boomers, and has already begun for the oldest. This huge number of people and their buying patterns vastly influence our economy.
Harry Dent, Author of The Roaring 2000's, makes his living predicting where the Boomers are headed and their impact on the US economy. Here are his national predictions for real estate over the next 20 years:
Starting in 1994 Boomers have been moving up to larger family homes, with the peak years for this phenomenon between 2001 and 2005. Santa Barbara started following this trend beginning in 1996, and it is still in full swing. Nationwide, bursts of buying activity from move-up buyers will continue until 2008.
Successful Boomers, as they reach their 50's, are living in larger family homes, and many are searching to buy a vacation home. This vacation home is to be for part time personal use, possibly living there full time at retirement. Alternatively, as they vacation at resort communities, aging Boomers shop for a town that caters to people in their 60's, where they can relocate a few years from now.
Using 63 as an average retirement, Boomers will reach this point between the years of 2000 and 2026. Migration to retirement areas is certain for this group.
Climate impaired locations (anywhere with less attractive climate than Santa Barbara is climate impaired) will experience serious softening of real estate prices after 2008. Dent predicts a decade of deflation in home prices for these areas. Dent foresees five large trends in real estate after 2008: 1. A broad migration toward smaller towns. 2. A strong, constant rise in retirement home purchases. 3. Rising demand for rental property in urban and suburban areas through 2017. 4. A rapid, accelerating demand for vacation homes, peaking around 2012 to 2015. 5. The slowest growth sector after 2008 will be starter homes, with the exception of high immigration/high growth boom towns.
Dent concludes that the greatest opportunity for business as a whole and for real estate in particular will come from towns beyond the suburban fringe of metropolitan areas. They will be attracting the elderly and retirement populations. Retirees in substantial numbers will shift living to remote retirement states, (think Florida, Arizona, etc.). Even more people will retire "in place," seeking to live in or near the same area where they have been working or have nearby family.
Santa Barbara County seems a certain choice for the massive national relocation of 60,000,000 Boomers. Santa Ynez, Santa Maria, and Buellton are destined to be "small town" beneficiaries from the trends. Santa Barbara and the South Coast seem poised for a steady stream of successful Boomers from around the country. Add in its wonderful climate and retirement friendly services and Santa Barbara will be a destination of choice for many people. Dent's conclusions ring so true. Undoubtedly, there will be business cycles along the way, but the overall trend will be upward for housing prices over the next 20 years, as a steady stream of successful Baby Boomers beat a path to the doorsteps of Santa Barbara. Call me at 805-563-4031 to position your investments where it will do you the most good, here in our town.
Scott Williams has been involved in the real estate industry since 1977. By 1981 he rocketed to become the number one Santa Barbara agent in an organization with more than 200 agents. He has achieved the annual number one status in his office 14 times. Prior to entering real estate Scott graduated from UCSB. He has two children and mentors in the “Fighting Back” program.
He is a Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), a Graduate of the Realtor’s Institute (GRI), and teaches real estate courses for Santa Barbara Community College. Mr. Williams can be contacted at http://www.scottwilliams.com
This article was posted on May 26, 2004
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This article is the property of and published with the permission of Scott Williams. For more information regarding the author or to contact the author visit his website at http://www.scottwilliams.com
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